GDP set to jump fourfold to $4.5 trillion by 2020: Edelweiss- Indicators-Economy-News-The Economic Times

GDP set to jump fourfold to $4.5 trillion by 2020: Edelweiss- Indicators-Economy-News-The Economic Times:

"The economy is set to grow four times over the next ten years to a hefty Rs 205 trillion from Rs 53 trillion in the last fiscal, says a report.
'Driven by a nominal annual growth rate of 13 per cent, GDP is set to quadruple over the next ten years and the country is likely to be a Rs 205-trillion (USD 4.5 trillion) economy by 2020,' financial services company Edelweiss Capital said in its report--'India 2020: Seeing, Beyond,' which was released here today.

The report focuses on three super themes--financial services, private domestic consumption and physical infrastructure.

According to the report, gross domestic savings would grow by 3.8 times from Rs 19 trillion in FY09 to Rs 72 trillion in FY20.

'Over the next 10 years, the incremental financial savings (Rs 172 trillion) will equal four times the total financial services over the past 40 years,' it said.

The report has forecast that domestic consumption expenditure is set to triple from Rs 30 trillion in FY09 to Rs 113 trillion in FY20.

'There will be a movement from essential items of consumption such as food, clothing and footwear, among others, to discretionary items and economic enablers such as healthcare, education, recreation, amongst others,' the Edelweiss report said."

India has the Third largest number of billionaires Next to US and China

India is a land of many contradictions. On one hand you have an economy which is the second fastest growing in the world after China, strong Indian companies with a global footprint, surging stockmarkets and an interesting diversity in terms of culture and languages. On the other hand you have poor infrastructure, lack of significant development in the rural hinterland and a majority of population which depends upon agriculture as means of livelihood. Of the various phenomenon that have put India on the global map, one such factor is the number of billionaires in the country. As the above chart shows, in 2009, India had the third highest number of billionaires after the US and China. Interestingly, India also has the highest percentage of population living below the poverty line as compared to its BRIC peers further accentuating a myriad of stark contrasts in the country. - Excerpts from Equity master

Long hours for brokers starting to-day

Brokers, bankers, fund managers and day traders in Mumbai have reset their alarm clocks to wake up an hour early from Monday to Friday. Some breakfasts, many morning walks and a few school drops will be sacrificed as the country’s two largest stock exchanges start trading at 9am beginning on Monday.
An entire generation of market intermediaries used to the 9.55am-3.30pm slot will have to make some painful adjustments in their personal and professional lives. An extra hour of work a day means almost an extra day a week.

Will gold turn out to be the asset class of choice in the next decade as well?

"Amidst all the madness there was one asset class that remained rock solid right till the end. In fact, it ended each year of the decade higher than the price at which it started the year. Thus, if there is one widely accepted asset class that deserves the title to be the asset of the decade, it is none other than the yellow metal gold. As per a story in LiveMint, Gold witnessed a near fourfold jump in its price over the past decade. It beat other contenders like crude oil and the Indian Sensex, which were up around three-fold, by a handsome margin.

Now, to the question that we are sure would be on most investors' minds. Will Gold outperform in the coming decade as well? We may not like to hazard a guess on that one. But we are fairly certain about is its ability to continue giving attractive returns. As one financial expert rightly put it, 'Gold no doubt is a speculation but it is a speculation on a certainty. And that certainty is the debasement of currencies.' Thus, gold bugs can continue to keep the faith. But do not go overboard with your gold investment."

My recommendation :- Go with Gold ETF, you don't loose on redemtion(but for the brokerage) and it is faster to get it redemed. If it is ornament it has got utility vaue but would attract lesser price while redemption and is little more tougher to get cash in exchange of gold as most of the Jewellery shops would prefer a gold to gold exchange ( old for new ornaments)

Indian Auto Industry Dec'09 performance

"India's auto industry ended 2009 on a strong note with car and two I wheeler makers reporting robust growth in December sales as increas ing economic activity and easy avail ability of loans prompted buyers to rush to dealerships.
December is traditionally seen as a weak month for sales as customers prefer to wait for the new year to make purchases as cars bought in December attract lower resale prices than than those bought a month later.
However, in the past few years car makers have rushed to attract buyers with discounts and other rebates to shore up December sales.
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd, the coun try's largest car maker reported a 36% jump in sales. The company sold 71,000 units in December, compared with 52,029 units a year ago.
Sales at rival, Hyundai Motor India Ltd, rose 42% to 22,252 units. Mahin dra and Mahindra Ltd clocked the big gest percentage jump, with sales ris ing 122% to 22,754 units.
Tata Motors Ltd did not release its numbers.
The growth was also helped along by the base effect when muted growth in one month leads to the next year's numbers looking stronger then they would have otherwise. Car and twowheeler sales started falling in October 2008 and continued to do so till February.
Smaller players such as General Motors India and Skoda Auto also reported brisk growth. Sales at Gener al Motors doubled to 8,258 units. Sig nificantly, the Spark, its small car, accounted for 4,147 units. It plans to further strengthen its offering in the small car segment with the launch of the Chevrolet Beat at this month's New Delhi Auto Expo. Skoda sold 1,113 units compared with 732 a year ago.
Car makers also benefited from buyers advancing purchases due to price hikes, which several companies have said they plan to do in the next few months. Some, such as Ford India Pvt. Ltd, have already announced an increase in prices from January.
Among twowheeler companies, Hero Honda Motors Ltd ended the year with the company selling"

Indian infrastructure - Ports

"The average turnaround time for ships at Indian ports was 3.85 days in FY09, compared with just 10 hours in Hong Kong"

Investing in Indian Stock மார்க்கெட்

"If the coming decades belong to China and India, then we are going to witness the changing lifestyle of the average Chinese and Indian. In particular, he will be consuming more energy. The primary sources of energy remain hydrocarbons – coal, crude oil and natural gas. Of these, natural gas is the most environment friendly. Little wonder then, the growth rate in demand is going to be the highest for natural gas, from all across Asia and especially from China and India.

So, natural gas producers and transporters are going to create a lot of wealth for themselves and their shareholders. The demand is evident in the off take numbers. But the supply side might also surprise us. In fact, we believe India also has enormous potential in terms of new discoveries"

I also read in to-days ET that India has abundant frozen hydrates in its ocean beds - a source of Natural Gas. This would put India with excess natural gas and hence India would also export the same to Iran.

Mobile Money should be a great equaliser

Mobile money would help democratise economy

iMela2009

This year's iMela celebrated by iNautix at Chennai convention center on 1st November 2009 was better than the last years'. While last year's iMela made a departure from the old trends set and created a benchmark. The thematic - this year's iMela was fabulous.

How should we utilize this aboundant talent ?

LIC Jeevan Bhima Nagar, Chennai - 40

After 6 years I visited my flat at LIC Jeevan Bhima Nagar , Chennai-40. The Block 26 that the flat is part of , has changed for the good. Thanks to the initiatives taken by the enthusiastic neighbours.

I had always thought that there is a need gap which always exists which gets rarely filled in this space of building / society - development / maintenance. Inspite of the above said initiative there still exists this gap.

I am happy to be back to be part of the LIC Jeevan Bhima society. Though I haven't still made up my mind if I should retain and let the flat for rent or sell it out.

Behind their gentle smile lie pain and sorrow
R. Sujatha
The idealism of nurses is constantly tested

— PHOTO: S. THANTHONI NOBLE PROFESSION: Nursing is a profession that requires idealism and physical endurance.
CHENNAI: Doctors diagnose and treat but the diligent nurse can make the difference to a patient recovering from a life-threatening situation.
Behind their serene, gentle smile and spotless uniform lie pain and sorrow. The uniform makes them confident when they have to administer difficult treatments, they say. Their idealism is constantly tested that discourages others from following in their footsteps, the nurses admit.
While helping the sick to recuperate, they also ward off infections that each person brings to the hospital.
Nurse K. Buvaneswari entered the profession in 1991. She has worked in the burns ward, the cancer ward and in the intensive care unit. Work in the ICU is demanding but satisfaction is higher as she can concentrate on patients better. Her three-year tenure in the burns ward was stressful. “Patients would writhe and scream in pain, and there is little we can do. We cannot give them injections all the time,” she recalls.
“In the septic or cancer ward, we are battling diseases every minute. As the only duty nurse I am currently in charge of 120 patients on four floors. At night, the patients will complain more and we have to watch them constantly. Our best efforts are laid waste sometimes, and I would return home exasperated,” she admits. Nurses in the isolation room of the cancer ward are the most overworked, she says. “It is at nights that the hospital receives more accident victims, those who attempt suicide .”
Her colleague, John Canoli Ratnam, says the problem in his hospital is poor staff strength.
He takes care of over 100 patients at night in the casualty ward of Government Royapettah Hospital. As he is on contract, he gets only Rs. 3,500 a month. “I studied in a government college on stipend so I have to work in the government sector. I cannot send the money home. Instead, I depend on my parents,” he says. His earlier posting was in the well-staffed City Police Hospital.
K. Jamuna Bai of K.K. Nagar Peripheral Hospital cannot forget her tenure at the TB hospital. “A patient had developed gout and he could not breathe. I knew he was dying. I removed the blood clot from his throat with my finger. When he began breathing I was relieved.”
When patients survive the emergency treatment and we are able to send them to a referral hospital for further treatment we are relieved,” she says. “Many of us have problems like osteoarthritis. We have knee aches and wear knee pads or crepe bandage.”
N.S. Sumathi began as a domestic help in a doctor’s house who encouraged her to take up ECG technician’s course at B.S.S. Hospital in Mandaveli.
“I have studied only up to Standard VIII and am not fluent in English. It was difficult to learn from seniors. Some of the kinder nurses have taught me to dress wounds, administer drips and injection and sutures,” she says. Though her family is not cooperative, she has trudged on. “My mother takes care of my two children. I was earning Rs. 300 as domestic help. Now I earn Rs.3500.

Inflation. raise in CRR- Price control Vs duty cuts

The Industry leaders - are they matured enough to pass on the duty cut benefits to the consumers ? If yes, the demand will increase. There would not be price control from the government. If the banks do not increase interest rates, this would further help in increasing demand and there by the natural demand in this favourable demographics would help corporates to sell more and make more profits.

If duty cuts are not passed on to the customers, prices will remain high reducing the demand which would eventually lead to price control and reduced consumption. This added with increase in interest rate would reduce corporate profits.

This is a great opportune time and a point for the corporate heads to take the right direction to help themselves and the nation to attain glory.

China's problems - from the Economist

Industry in China

Where is everybody?

Mar 13th 2008 GUANGZHOU
From The Economist print edition


Manufacturers struggle in southern China's industrial belt

AT FIRST, the managers of the factories spread throughout Guangdong province thought the lack of returning workers after the Chinese New Year break in early February was merely because they had been delayed by the huge blizzard that disrupted rail and power lines, and left roads impassable. But now that the mess has now been cleaned up, it is clear that the vast annual migration of around 20m people that has fuelled the manufacturing boom in southern China over the past two decades is beginning to diminish.

The Guangdong Labour Ministry reckons 11% of the workers did not return after the holiday; other estimates are as high as 30%. Whatever the precise number, many factories are reeling. Wages were already rising; now they will surely go up further, adding to surging costs for credit, materials, energy, environmental compliance and health care. Meanwhile, revenues are falling due to slowing demand from America and a reduction, following pressure from other countries, in China's complex system of export subsidies.

A survey of conditions in southern China conducted in the aftermath of the Chinese New Year, covering 162 members of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries, produced reams of gloomy figures. Members estimated 10-20% of the 70,000 factories in Guangdong province had closed in the past year, and expected a similar number to close within the next two years. Two-thirds of those polled said they were unsure whether to invest more in the region; one-third planned to cut investment. Only one respondent was optimistic.

To some extent the upheaval in southern China follows a government plan to force dirty, low-paying industries out of business or into poorer interior regions that have so far missed out on the country's growing industrial wealth. The hope is that the gaps in Guangdong will be filled by factories producing more sophisticated, high-value products that are cleaner and less energy-intensive to produce. There are signs that this is indeed happening.

Factories are opening up in China's interior, providing opportunities for those in rural areas to find employment closer to home, rather than having to leave their families for an entire year. This may explain the reduced flow of migrant workers. At the same time, discriminating industrial parks are popping up in Guangdong and Suzhou, among other places, that will only permit factories producing sophisticated electronics and medical equipment. The factories in deepest trouble are said to be in low-cost, low-skill areas: toys, plastics, shoes, clothing and so on. Many are sweatshops with poor working conditions.

Firms that provide relatively high wages and good working conditions do not seem to have problems attracting employees. Nike's sneaker factory in Dongguang, one of the grimier sections of Guangdong, has 27,000 workers, including 4,500 that have returned over the past year and 40% who have been around for at least three years. The workers receive 1,400 yuan a month ($200), well above the minimum wage, receive subsidised food and (for the 7,500 living inside the factory) clean dormitories. Nike is not competing for the low end of the market: shoes produced its is Dongguang factory can cost as much as $185 a pair.

But Nike has been steadily spreading manufacturing from southern China to the rest of the country, and the rest of South-East Asia. Indeed, the idea of shifting away from China seems to be gaining adherents. A study by Booz Allen Hamilton, a consultancy, on behalf of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, says more than half of foreign firms believe China is losing its edge over other low-cost Asia countries, and 17% intend to relocate.

This shift will be a good thing, as production shifts to Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia and even Africa, spreading wealth and deepening manufacturing skills. Whereas China was once desperate to grow through exports, it is now developing its own domestic economy and has other ways to thrive beyond merely producing cheap goods. But these shifts are at the very least disruptive. Hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of unskilled workers still depend on southern China's low-cost factories for their livelihoods.

And as the rusted hulks of manufacturing plants throughout the Western world attest, the transition to higher-value products can be difficult. Clement Chen, the chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries, says the Chinese government is understandably clamping down on lots of dirty industries—leather tanning, dyeing, finishing, electroplating, and the like—but that this can disrupt the broader manufacturing supply chain, including industries China wants to develop. Business environments, like ecosystems, can be fragile—and once lost, competitive advantage can be hard, if not impossible, to regain.

What is the difference between electrical and electronics engineering?

The number of differences between electrical and electronics engineering may vary, depending on the context in which the question is asked. Some distinctions which may exist in academe may not exist in the business world. There is also a significant amount of overlap, not only between electronics and electrical engineering, but with other engineering disciplines as well. Most notable are the overlaps between electronics and computer engineering and with electrical and mechanical engineering.

Electrical engineers generally deal with large-power applications, such as utility and industrial power systems, whereas electronics engineers deal with low-power systems such as computers and communications. Most work in electrical engineering makes use of knowledge of both electronics and electrical engineering. Power systems today are making increasing use of power electronics and digital controls for controlling power flow, and many electronic systems make use of milliwatt electro-mechanical components.

Would the stock market boom in the past several weeks - Continue ?

The bull run is unabatted. The PE ratio is still linggering around the acceptable multiples. How is it the companies are posting earnings growth quarter after quarter ?